Finally!!!
|Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Jun. USD is Down at 99.650.
Energies: May Crude is Down at 50.64.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is Up 2 ticks and trading at 154.07.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 10 ticks Higher and trading at 2354.75.
Gold: The April gold contract is trading Down at 1282.00. Gold is 18 ticks Lower than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down- and crude is Down- which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Up+ and Crude is trading Down- which is correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down-. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this hour Asia is trading mixed with half the exchanges trading higher and the other half lower. As of this writing Europe is trading mixed as well.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
– FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 9:30 AM EST. This is major.
– Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
– Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
– Existing Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
Treasuries
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZB made it’s move at around 10 AM at around the time that the Conference Board numbers came out. The ZB hit a high at around that time and the YM hit a low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 10 AM and the YM was moving higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a high at around 10 AM and the YM hit a low. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform.
Bias
Yesterday we gave the markets an upside bias as the USD, Bonds and Gold were trading lower yesterday morning and usually this results in an upside day. The markets didn’t disappoint as the Dow soared 175 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Yesterday the markets finally experienced positive traction after two full days of selling off. Economic news left much to be desired as the Philly Fed MFG and Unemployment claims didn’t meet expectation but a bright spot arose as the new Treasury Secretary spoke who claimed that tax cuts weren’t tied to Healthcare and this shred a glimmer of hope in the markets. Today we have Existing Home Sales and PMI numbers to contend with…
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