Fed minutes weaken the U.S. dollar, Trading expected to remain subdued
|The U.S. dollar gave up its gains yesterday as economic data and the Fed's meeting minutes sent the greenback lower. Durable goods orders declined more than expected following September's strong performance which was revised higher. The declines in the durable goods orders came due to a drop in transportation equipment.
The Federal Reserve released the meeting minutes yesterday. The minutes signaled that the central bank will hike interest rates amid a strengthening economy. But the minutes also showed that some Fed officials were concerned that weaker inflation would persist for longer than expected.
In the UK, the budget release showed that the government was allocating further funds towards Brexit. This comes on top of the 700 million GBP that was already set aside initially. The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility also slashed growth forecasts.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is quiet today. The Tokyo and New York markets are closed today. Data from the Eurozone will see the final revised GDP from Germany while the UK will also release its revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The ECB will be releasing the meeting minutes while Canada will release the retail sales numbers.
EURUSD intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.1836): The EURUSD posted strong gains by yesterday's close. This comes following the spinning bottom pattern formed the day before. As a result, EURUSD is now seen testing the previous resistance level of 1.1843 - 1.1822 region. We expect the gains to hold out here. However, a breakout above this resistance will put the EURUSD back on a bullish path with a test towards the 1.1900 level being quite likely. However, in the event that the resistance level holds out, EURUSD could be seen falling back from this resistance level to trade within the previously established range.
USDJPY intra-day analysis
USDJPY (111.34): The USDJPY extended the declines as price action fell below the 111.74 support level. The strong declines posted resulted in a doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart. A bullish reversal here could signal a short-term retracement back towards the 111.74 price level where resistance could be established. On the downside, the next main support is seen at the 111.00 level. We expect the declines to continue down towards this support with the potential to briefly break below the 111.00 support level in the short term.
XAUUSD intra-day analysis
XAUUSD (1289.93): Gold prices closed on a bullish trend yesterday marking two consecutive days of gain. Price action broke above the resistance level of 1285.00 once again before easing back. We expect that this breakout to hold this time and any declines will see a correction back to the breached resistance level. Establishing support here could signal further upside in price towards the 1304 level of resistance. Alternately, to the downside, failure to establish support at 1285 will signal continued consolidation above the lower support level of 1274 region.
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