EUR/USD Forecast: range persist, little hopes Payrolls can change the scenario
|The EUR/USD pair continued trading lifeless these past days, confined to a tight range for the fifth consecutive week, as investors are still looking for a fresh catalyst beyond Central Banks.
Market's attention is slowly turning towards US elections after the first US Presidential debate, called by media as a point-win for the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. The next debate will take place in a couple of weeks, and markets will be looking if any of the candidates is able to launch a bazooka to lean the scale one way or the other. Despite forecasting the effect of the election over financial markets is not an easy task, there's a general agreement that Clinton represents stability, while Donald Trump is more like a wild card, and his victory will probably mean risk-off.
Next Friday, the US will release its September employment data, and expectations point for a steady unemployment rate at 4.9% and a slightly rise in jobs ' creation, up to 170K from previous month 151K. A result in line with expectations will hardly be a game changer for the greenback, and attention will turn then, into wages. But considering Friday's figures on spending and income, seems wages will disappoint again. Personal income rose 0.2% in August, matching expectations, while spending was flat, against market's expectations of a 0.1% advance, according to the Department of Commerce. The same report shows that core personal consumption expenditures, , rose 0.2% month-on-month, while yearly basis, it climbed modestly for the first time since February, to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The dollar closes the week with a firmer tone, helped by risk sentiment rather than by strong local data, with the EUR/USD pair still stuck around the 1.1200 figure.
From a technical point of view, the pair is well limited between 1.1120 and 1.1280, and unless it is able to gain momentum either side of that range, it will have little to offer for one more week. Technical readings in the daily chart maintain the neutral tone, as the keeps hovering around its moving averages, while technical indicators aim modestly lower, but lack strength within neutral territory.
The levels to watch these upcoming days are the same seen last week, with 1.1160, as the immediate support, ahead of the base of the range at 1.1120, the lows for the last couple of weeks. Below this last, a downward extension can see 1.1000/40 by the end of the week, particularly if the NFP is a huge upward surprise.
The immediate resistance on the other hand is 1.1245, followed by the 1.1280/90 region. Beyond this last the rally can extend up to 1.1366, August high, en route to 1.1460, the level that caps the upside since early 2015.
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