EUR/USD analysis: Bulls remain in full control ahead of Fedspeak
|- The post-FOMC USD selling remains unabated and continues fueling the up-move.
- Investors now eye Fed speaks for some immediate respite for the USD bulls.
Bearish pressure surrounding the US Dollar - triggered by last week's more dovish shift by the FOMC, remained unabated and continued pushing the EUR/USD pair higher on the first day of a new trading week. The USD selling aggravated further on Monday after the US President Donald Trump's latest criticism over the US central bank's recent policy tightening - including rate hikes and reduction in the balance sheet. The positive momentum seemed rather unaffected by the disappointing release of the German IFO business climate index, which dropped to 97.4 in June - the lowest level since November 2014.
The pair easily surpassed the 1.1400 round figure mark and continued gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive day to hit fresh three-month tops during the Asian session on Tuesday. Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to scheduled speeches by influential FOMC members - including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for some immediate respite for the USD bulls. Apart from the Fed speaks, market participants on Tuesday will further take cues from the US economic data - the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Manufacturing Index and new home sales data.
From a technical perspective, last week's sustained move beyond a six-month-old descending trend-channel and a subsequent strength above the very important 200-day SMA already seems to have confirmed a near-term bullish breakout. With technical indicators on the daily chart holding comfortably in the positive territory and still far from being oversold, the pair seems all set to aim towards testing March monthly swing highs, around the 1.1445-50 region - nearing 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1803-1.1107 downfall.
On the flip side, any meaningful pullback below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around the 1.1385 region, might still be seen as a buying opportunity and should limit the downside near mid-1.1300s (200-DMA), which is closely followed by the descending trend-channel resistance breakpoint turned support near the 1.1330-25 region.
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