Chart of the Week, Gold: XAU/USD traders braced for turmoil, four days into Russian invasion of Ukraine
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UPGRADE- Gold is hanging in the balance of the Ukraine crisis.
- Safe-haven flows have contributed to the strong price action.
Conflict in Ukraine is likely to continue driving the gold price for the week ahead as it did last week. Tensions are rising following the heaviest shelling of the war so far this weekend and news of Russia's mobilisation of nuclear weapons are a major concern for markets. A big driver of risk will also be the market's assessment of how long the military campaign in Ukraine lasts.
''Certainly, safe-haven flows have contributed to the strong price action, helping to fuel the rise in non-commercial longs, but the outsized increase in the money manager longs component also supports our findings that CTAs likely added longs into the rally,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.
''However, with the climactic risk event in the rearview, safe-haven buyers will likely be left to unload their length without an additional algo bid, as trend followers are set to reverse their length below the $1840/oz range.''
Gold weekly chart
Meanwhile, the close last week was bearish, but considering the Ukraine crisis, the outlook remains bullish for gold.
Gold, 4-hour chart
With that being said, there could be more to go to the downside from a technical perspective in order to mitigate the imbalance of price to the trendline support. The price action for the coming seasons could look something like as follows:
The above chart illustrates the potential for a test of the dynamic support into the void towards $1,850s. The price would be expected to find support there and all will depend on the direction of the crisis. Any prospects of a ceasefire would be critical in this regard.
- Gold is hanging in the balance of the Ukraine crisis.
- Safe-haven flows have contributed to the strong price action.
Conflict in Ukraine is likely to continue driving the gold price for the week ahead as it did last week. Tensions are rising following the heaviest shelling of the war so far this weekend and news of Russia's mobilisation of nuclear weapons are a major concern for markets. A big driver of risk will also be the market's assessment of how long the military campaign in Ukraine lasts.
''Certainly, safe-haven flows have contributed to the strong price action, helping to fuel the rise in non-commercial longs, but the outsized increase in the money manager longs component also supports our findings that CTAs likely added longs into the rally,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.
''However, with the climactic risk event in the rearview, safe-haven buyers will likely be left to unload their length without an additional algo bid, as trend followers are set to reverse their length below the $1840/oz range.''
Gold weekly chart
Meanwhile, the close last week was bearish, but considering the Ukraine crisis, the outlook remains bullish for gold.
Gold, 4-hour chart
With that being said, there could be more to go to the downside from a technical perspective in order to mitigate the imbalance of price to the trendline support. The price action for the coming seasons could look something like as follows:
The above chart illustrates the potential for a test of the dynamic support into the void towards $1,850s. The price would be expected to find support there and all will depend on the direction of the crisis. Any prospects of a ceasefire would be critical in this regard.
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