BTC awaits CPI shock: Is $112K next or a fakeout before the fall?

• BTC consolidates below $110K ahead of CPI, with price sitting above key H4 and D1 FVG level.
• A soft CPI may trigger a bounce from FVG support toward $111,800 and higher.
• A hot CPI risks a bull trap, with rejection and breakdown targeting $104K-$103K.

Macro meets crypto

Bitcoin has rallied sharply in recent sessions, recovering from its June lows and reclaiming the $109K level. However, just as BTC approaches a key resistance level, the market is now bracing for today’s U.S. CPI release at 8:30 AM EST, a macro event that could heavily sway risk sentiment and crypto flows.

While Bitcoin is often touted as inflation-resistant, in practice, it behaves more like a high-beta tech asset, closely tied to liquidity cycles and rate expectations. Here’s what to watch:

• Headline CPI YoY (May): 2.5% (Prev: 2.3%).
• Core CPI YoY: 2.9% (Prev: 2.8%).
• MoM CPI: 0.2-0.3%.

If inflation remains sticky, expectations of a Fed pivot could be pushed further out, potentially triggering risk-off flows that hit crypto. But a soft CPI could reignite bullish risk appetite, further fueling BTC’s momentum.

BTC daily outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading inside a broader range, with price yet to tap into the Daily FVG sitting at $106,500-$108,400 level just above $110,000 while still respecting the Weekly FVG tapped last week.

• Key resistance zone: D1 FVG at $109,000-$110,500
• Weekly FVG support: $98,000-$100,700
• Daily FVG support: $106,500-$108,400
• Structure suggests bullish reclaim, but now nearing decision point

BTC four-hour outlook

The 4H timeframe shows a clean range, with potential for a liquidity sweep below, aligning with confluence at both the 4H and Daily FVG level, where price is currently consolidating above.

• H4 FVG: $108,000-$108,500.
• D1 FVG aligns above: $106,500-$108,400.
• Current range highs are stalling below $110.5K.

Bullish CPI case for BTC

A softer-than-expected CPI print could trigger renewed risk-on sentiment across the markets and Bitcoin looks technically primed to capitalize on it.

• Soft CPI fuels broader risk-on sentiment.
• BTC confirms breakout above $110K level.
• Targets: $112,000-$115,000.
• Longs validated on pullbacks to H4/D1 FVG confluence.
• Weekly structure remains intact and favorable.

Bearish CPI case for BTC

A hot CPI print could strengthen the dollar and trigger risk-off flows, leading BTC to reject from the current range highs.

• CPI surprises to the upside - dollar strength - crypto risk-off.
• BTC rejects from $110K level - resulting to a fake-out or bull trap.
• Break below H4 FVG opens downside back to Weekly FVG.
• Target range: $105,000-$102,000.
• Break of structure confirms deeper retracement.