Bostic says: Higher inflation is ahead

• The Dollar sees a little buying in the last two sessions.
• More of the If I were king for you today.

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I didn't have to suffer through another badly pitched baseball game last night, as my beloved Cardinals had the day off to travel back for a 6 game homestand and then the All-Star Game next week... The Cardinals have really sunk low as they only had 1 player make the All-Star Team for the National League. When the Cardinals were on top, they would have 3 or 4 All-Stars chosen for the game... And I used to think about the one player from a lowly team that was there only because of a rule that all teams must be represented. But that doesn't take anything away from Cardinals Player, Brendon Donovan... He earned this All-Star position! Blackfoot greets me this morning with his great song: Highway Song.

Well, the dollar was getting bought yesterday morning, but that al stopped around the time the NY traders arrived at their desks... The BBDXY did gain 3 index points on the day, and ended the day at 1,194... The U.S. traders weren't so sure about a delay in the timing of the next Fed / Cabal / Cartel rate cut as the overnight markets were... I guess the U.S. dollar traders are thinking that maybe there's a chance... Wait, What? You're telling me there's a chance of a rate cut still in July? Apparently so... And with that in mind.

Gold was down $37 to start the day yesterday but rallied back to end the day up $34! That's a $71 turnaround and it wasn't even Tuesday! Gold ended the day at $3,337... Silver was too down by 73-cents yesterday morning, but... rallied back to show just a 15-cents loss... Good Show metals! The price of Oil remained trading with a $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury bond was its yield raise a few bips, end the day trading with a $4.38% yield. 

Another thing weighing on the dollar yesterday was the announcement of new tariffs by the POTUS... Did you hear the BRICS nations are having their annual get-together and I'm sure they will be discussing how to get around the U.S. tariffs.

One of the tariffs the POTUS announced was a 10% tax on all items from countries that side with the BRICS... Now that's the way to win friends and influence enemies! NOT! But there's nothing I can do about these tariffs, so I'll just leave it at that, and move along.

In the overnight markets last night... Well, the dollar is up again this morning, this time by 2 index points in the BBDXY. The currencies don't really show this brief rally in the dollar, with the BIG DOG euro hanging tough around 1.1750. The rest of the currencies have slipped a bit, but nothing to write home about.  

Gold is down $16 to start the day today... Silver is up a plug nickel to start the day today, and Copper is hanging tough above $5 trading at $5.03 to start the day... Gold remains above the $3,300 figure and I think that's because of the trade show going on right now... Gold remains a hedge VS the dollar's tip toeing in the long-term weak trend waters.

The price of Oil remained above the $67 handle overnight... And the bond boys are thinking that there's no rate cut coming a couple of weeks, and the 10-year's yield sits at 4.41% to start the day today... Without the Fed Heads in, and manipulating the yield lower, the 10-year's direction should be upward but then we've always got the wolf at the door, in the U.S. Fed / Cabal / Cartel doing their "yield management"... It's manipulation any which way to paint the picture of what they are doing with bonds... I'm just saying.

In my list of things weighing on the dollar there was this on NBC.com "The simplest explanation for the decline is that global investors now expect the U.S. economy to no longer outperform the rest of the world as a result of Trump’s tariffs and worsening fiscal issues. Even with U.S. stocks returning to record highs, the return on other countries’ equities has been even stronger. Meanwhile the return on lending to the U.S. is expected to decline as growth here slows."

Chuck again... yes, that IS the simplest explanation, but then there's nothing simple about exploring the dollar's chinks in its armor.

Yesterday, I talked about "if I were King"... And today I have another thought on that matter, that I took from Doug Casey's International Man site: " the Bill of Rights, which is the most important part of the Constitution. And the most important part of the Bill of Rights is freedom of speech. All the other freedoms rest upon it. Because if you have a thought and you can't express it, you're as good as a slave. You can work and pay taxes, but if you say the wrong thing, you'll be punished. Best to restrict what you think and say to the weather, sports, and the condition of the roads. And be careful what you say about the weather…"

If I were KING, I would allow free speech anywhere, anytime, given the room.

I have been on the lookout for articles about what the Fed Heads are saying these days ahead of their next FOMC meeting later this month. And my friends that have posted the Pfennig on their website for eons, the FX Street.com had this last week... "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that the US economy is likely to face a protracted period of adjustment in response to new trade and policy dynamics, warning it “will not be short or simple” and could extend over a year or more."

Chuck again... That's a bunch of Fed-speak, that means... Higher Inflation is in the cards! I know that he really didn't mention inflation, but in a roundabout way he did, and that's what Fed-speak is all about... Daze and Confuse, that way they can't pin the bad stuff on you in the future... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today doesn't have much, but it does have the latest report on Consumer Credit (read debt) for May... I know that's seems like eons ago, but it takes the Gov't accountants some extra time to cook the books... I'm just saying.

Consumer Credit (read debt) is expected to be half the size of the number for April... Which means one of two things... Either Consumers have pulled back their deficit spending because they've run the max on their credit cards, and new ones haven't arrived yet, or... Consumers have decided to tighten their belts because it's the right thing to do...  Which one do you pick? My bet is on the former explanation.

To Recap... The dollar gets some love overnight, let's see what happens when the U.S. traders arrive at their desks... Gold is getting sold this morning, but Chuck thinks that's just the short paper traders, as Gold is still a hedge against further dollar weakness... And Doug Casey drops by the Pfennig this morning!

Here's your snippet: "The labor market surprised in June with a better-than-expected payroll gain of 147,000, the government said Thursday.

But 85% of those job gains came in just two sectors, according to calculations by Mike Konczal, a former Biden economic official: education and health care.

Hiring in other sectors — including professional and business services, a catch-all category for white collar jobs — was little changed, the government said.

Zoom out: That continues the "frozen job market" trend that has plagued the economy in recent years.

The trend is being exacerbated by the rise of AI, as employers experiment with how to make their workforces more productive.

Between the lines: Separate data released last week showed the number of layoffs fell by 188,000 in May, hovering above multi-decade lows.

But the number of people hired into new jobs also fell by 112,000, a rate significantly below its pre-pandemic levels.

The number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits is at the highest level since 2021, a sign that it is taking jobless workers longer to find a job.

The bottom line: If you look only at how many Americans are losing their jobs, this appears to be a pretty terrific labor market. If you look only at how many are being hired for new jobs, it is the weakest in years."

Chuck again... Clear as mud? Well, just take my word for it, the labor market is not as strong as the BLS would have you believe... And if it's so difficult to obtain the surveys as the BLS says it is, then scrap them and just go with the ADP Employment Report! In my opinion it's the truest form of an accurate Labor Report that we can get! 

Market Prices 7/8/2025: American Style A$.6543, kiwi .6013, C$.7326, euro 1.1752, sterling 1.3575, Swiss $1.2542, European Style: rand 17.7764, krone 10.0533, SEK 9.5198, forint 340.33, zloty 3.6167, koruna 21.0076, RUB 78.24, yen 146.55, Sing 1.2787, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.70, China 7.1758, peso 18.63, BRL 5.4869, BBDXY 1,196, Dollar Index 97.46, Oil $67.74, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $36.80, Platinum $1,321.00, Palladium $1,133.00, Copper $5.03, and Gold... $3,321.

That's it for today... While I still found a baseball game to watch last night, I had no dog in the hunt, so I didn't have my heart rate rise when a team blew a lead... And that's a good thing! The sun came out yesterday, after a day of rain on Sunday, but... I didn't get outside to read, don't know why I didn't, but Oh well... a wasted day! That's how I feel when I don't spend some time in the sun, no matter how hot it is! Later this month, I'll be going on my annual Traditional Summer Vacation... Leaving July 25^th and returning August 11... So, you've had your first warning... I'm feeling much better these days, more normal... And that's good, that was a long, drawn-out rehab, wasn't it? Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Out In The Country... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!