AUD/USD Forecast: Holding around 0.6900 but positive momentum fading
|AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6908
- Chinese trade surplus foreseen at $48B in December in dollar terms.
- Australian inflation remained subdued in December according to the TD Securities report.
- AUD/USD unable to clear a strong static Fibonacci resistance at around 0.6915.
The AUD/USD pair posted a modest advance this Monday, surging to 0.6919 and settling a few pips above the 0.6900 level. Up for a second consecutive day, the Aussie was underpinned by a generalised positive mood, with most indexes closing the day in the green and US Treasury yields popping higher. Australian TD Securities inflation came in at 0.3% MoM, better than the previous, and at 1.4% YoY, slightly below the 1.5% from November.
This Tuesday, the focus shifts to China, as the country will release its December trade data. The Trade Balance in dollar terms is expected to post a surplus of $48B, while imports are seen rising by 9.6% and exports by 3.2%, both much better than the previous readings. Australia won’t release macroeconomic data.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair is just below the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish tun, unable to clear the Fibonacci resistance. In the short-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is neutral-to-bullish, as it’s confined between directionless moving averages while technical indicators eased from intraday highs, holding within positive levels but gaining downward traction. The pair would further lose its upward potential on a break below 0.6885, the immediate support.
Support levels: 0.6885 0.6840 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.6915 0.6950 0.6990
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