AUD/USD Forecast: China weighs on the Aussie
|AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6832
- Australian NAB’s Business Confidence and NAB’s Business Conditions seen shrinking in November.
- Chinese import shrank further in November, with the trade surplus down to $38.73B.
- AUD/USD poised to extend its decline once below the 0.6800 figure.
The AUD/USD pair has ended the first day of the week losing some ground, although as it happened across the FX board, the action was extremely limited. The Aussie was hit by Chinese trade data, as the country’s surplus in dollar terms, declined to $38.73B in November. Exports were down by 1.1%, while imports increased by 0.3%YoY in the same month, growing for the first time since last April. The poor performance of worldwide equities maintained the pair under pressure throughout the day, despite the broad dollar’s weakness.
RBA’s Governor Lowe will offer a speech this Tuesday, although not particularly focused on monetary policy. Australia will also release the NAB’s Business Confidence Index for November, seen at 0 from 2 previously, and the NAB’s Business Conditions Index, expected at 2 from the previous 3. Additionally, China will publish its November Inflation figures, with the monthly CPI seen up by 0.1%.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair is neutral in the short-term, having found intraday support at the 38.2% retracement of its November slump at 0.6820. In the 4-hour chart, it is developing below the 20 and 200 SMA, both lacking directional strength, while technical indicators hover around their mid-lines, with modest upward slopes. The bearish case would be confirmed on a break below the 0.6800 figure, while the upside will remain limited by sellers aligned around 0.6865.
Support levels: 0.6800 0.6770 0.6730
Resistance levels: 0.6865 0.6890 0.6920
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