AUD/USD Forecast: Bullish momentum keeps fading
|AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6831
- Australian data missed the market’s expectations, market starts to drop the Aussie.
- AUD/USD at risk of resuming its decline on a break below 0.6800.
The AUD/USD pair edged lower this Thursday, but remained within familiar levels and not far from its weekly high. Australian data released at the beginning of the day came in worse than anticipated, weighing on the Aussie. The October Trade Balance surplus was of 4502M, well below the 6100M expected, with exports down by 5.0% in the month, and imports unchanged. Also, Retail Sales remained flat in the same month, missing the market’s expectation of a 0.3% gain. The poor performance of US equities and the lack of progress in a US-China trade deal, weighed the pair ahead of the close, although the decline was limited by the absence of dollar’s demand.
Australia will release this Friday the November AIG Performance of Construction Index, previously at 43.9.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair has continued to lose bullish momentum despite the modest intraday slide. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is now below its 20 and 200 SMA, both converging just above the current level. The 100 SMA, remains directionless around the 0.6800 figure, while technical indicators hold within neutral levels, lacking clear directional strength. The pair needs to leave the 0.6800/0.6865 to gain a certain directional momentum, with better odds of a bearish breakout.
Support levels: 0.6800 0.6770 0.6730
Resistance levels: 0.6865 0.6890 0.6920
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