WTI Price Analysis: Oil sellers approach $79.00 as China woes underpin risk aversion
|- WTI crude oil takes offers to refresh intraday low, extends week-start losses.
- Fears of China’s slowing economic recovery, banking woes in US and concerns about higher rates weigh on sentiment.
- One-month-old rising support line lures Oil bears amid looming bear cross on MACD.
- 200-SMA puts a floor under the energy benchmark ahead of early-July swing high.
WTI crude oil remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day, down 0.40% intraday near $79.85 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, black gold bears the burden of the market’s risk-off mood while ignoring the downbeat US Dollar.
That said, the impending bear cross on the MACD weigh on the WTI crude oil price towards a one-month-old rising support line, close to $79.00 by the press time. Also favoring the WTI bears is the downward-sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold.
It’s worth noting that the 200-SMA level of around $78.80 and the early July swing high surrounding $77.20 act as additional upside filters.
Alternatively, the weekly high of around $81.70 guards the immediate upside of the WTI crude oil.
Following that, the latest multi-month peak marked on August 10 around $84.35 will be in the spotlight.
That said, the mostly upbeat US data and looming fears about the US banking industry, especially after the recent credit rating downgrade from Moody’s and the S&P Global, underpin the market’s cautious mood and the bond coupons, which in turn weigh on the Oil price.
Furthermore, China’s efforts to defend the post-COVID economic recovery, via a slew of stimulus measures, fail to impress market optimists and exert downside pressure on the risk profile, which in turn allows the WTI bears to remain hopeful.
While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields refreshed the highest level since November 2007 earlier in the day to 4.36% before easing to 4.34% at the latest. On the same line, the S&P500 Futures print mild losses to reverse the previous recovery from a nine-week low.
WTI crude oil: Four-hour chart
Trend: Limited downside expected
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