When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?
|US monthly jobs report overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy created 145K jobs in September as compared to the previous month's reading of 130K.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% during the reported month and hence, the key focus will remain on wage growth figures, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% on a monthly basis, slightly lower than 0.4% previous, while the yearly rate is anticipated to have stabilized at 3.2%, as reported in August.
As Joseph Trevisani - Senior Analyst FXStreet explains – “The indicators for a slowdown are unmistakable but they are not all-encompassing. Job creation has declined, though by the historical standard it is still enviable. Business sentiment under the flail of the US-China trade war has been severely damaged with firms unwilling to spend on capital improvement thigh they remain curiously eager to hire.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -0.39 or +0.50 is likely to be in the range of 33-40 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 80-pips in the subsequent 4-hours.
How could the data affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair – “Resistance awaits at the round number of 1.10, which held it down on Thursday. It is followed by 1.1025, which was a swing high in late September. Next, we find 1.1075, which served in resistance in mid-September. 1.1115 is the next line to watch.”
“Support awaits at 1.10960, which separated ranges on Thursday and also in late September. The former double-bottom of 1.0926 serves as support ahead of 1.0905, which was the low point in late September and early October. The 2019 low of 1.0879 follows," he added further.
Key Notes
• US NFP Preview: 10 Major Banks expectations from September payrolls report
• US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Gathered clouds
• EUR/USD Forecast: May break 1.10 as markets brace for disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls
About the US monthly jobs report
The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.
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