When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?
|The German IFO Business Survey Overview
The German IFO survey for October is lined up for release later this Friday at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to tick lower to 94.5 from 94.6 previous. Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-index is seen falling to 98.0 for October and the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is anticipated to arrive at 91.0 vs. 90.8 last.
As Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet's own analyst explains – “Business sentiments in Europe’s largest economy have fallen to their lowest levels since the financial crisis with the judgement on the current climate reaching the bottom in August and expectations following in September. Germany’s export-driven economy has seen a steep decline in optimism over the past two years that began soon after the start of the China-US trade dispute in January 2018.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 9 and 12 pips in deviations up to -1.94 to +2.55, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 34-48 pips in the subsequent four hours.
How could affect EUR/USD?
According to Omkar Godbole, Technical Analyst at FXStreet – “Thursday's bearish outside bar reversal candle indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside. The pair, therefore, risks falling 1.1070 – the support of the ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bearish case would be invalidated if the spot rises above 1.1163. As of writing, the pair is trading in a sideways manner near 1.11 support.”
Key Notes
German October Ifo Business Survey Preview: Indicators predict recession
EUR/USD: On the defensive, eyes German IFO
EUR/USD Analysis: lower low supports a test of 1.1065
About the German IFO Business Climate
This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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