When is the Canadian jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
|Canadian employment details overview
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly jobs report for July later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus estimates, the number of employed people is expected to have risen by 12.5K during the reported month as compared to a drop of 2.2K in June, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.5%.
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities are looking for the July Labour Force Survey of Canada to reveal job growth of 10k for July in a further moderation from the robust performance over the first half of the year. “The goods-producing sector should provide the main driver for monthly job creation and we look for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.5% (mkt 5.5%). Wage growth will be a bright spot to the report, with average hourly earnings for permanent employees forecast to rise to 3.8% y/y (mkt 3.6%) on base effects.”
How could the data affect USD/CAD?
Ahead of the important release, the pair has managed to hold its neck above the 1.3200 mark and any surprisingly positive reading might be enough to support prospects for an extension of the overnight pullback from multi-week tops. Below the mentioned handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the slide back towards the 1.3150-45 horizontal resistance breakpoint now turned support before eventually dropping to test the 1.3100 handle.
On the flip side, bulls are likely to confront some resistance near the 1.3260-65 region, above which the pair seems all set to aim towards conquering the 1.3300 handle - a confluence region comprising of 100 & 200-day SMA. A follow-through buying might now pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move towards the 1.3360-70 intermediate hurdle en-route the 1.3400 round figure mark.
Key Notes
• Canada Employment Preview: The balance is changing fast
• USD/CAD consolidates above 1.3200 mark ahead of Canadian employment details
• USD/CAD technical analysis: 10-day SMA, 3-week old support-line question sellers
About the Employment Change
The employment Change released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.
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