When is Aussie CPI and how could it affect AUD/USD?
|Aussie GDP overview
The Australian GPI for the Q1 will be released at 0130GMT, ( thats 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). 'Headline' inflation is expected is +0.5% q/q, prior was +0.6%. For y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%.
Analysts at Westpac explained that this is arguably Australia’s most market-sensitive data release since GDP in early March – Q1 consumer price index:
"Australian inflation has printed below the Bloomberg median forecast for the past 5 quarters, so markets will be wary that inflation could continue to surprise on low side. Westpac’s forecast for the headline CPI is 0.5%qtr, holding the annual pace flat at 1.9%yr, with the market median also 0.5%qtr (but 2.0%yr). Core inflation seems set to remain below the bottom of the RBA target band, 0.5%qtr, 1.9%yr. A CPI reading close to our forecast should be taken calmly by markets but there will be considerable tension given the shock low reading 2 years ago which set up RBA rate cuts in May and August 2016."
How might Aussie GDP affect AUD/USD
The Technical outlook for the pair is highly bearish accompanied with a long upper wick on the monthly candlesticks. The pair dropped below the 76.4 Fibo at 0.7651 and 0.7643 and eyes are set for a test of the 0.7504 level ahead of key 0.7420 target. On a break higher, the same mentioned 0.7650 level is key ahead of the 21-D SMA at 0.7713.
Key notes:
- AUD/USD analysis: Aussie tumbles to its lowest for the year
- AUDUSD Sells-Off After Pin Bar Signal Bears Fruit - April 23rd - 27th 2018
About Aussie CPI
The Consumer Price Index released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The trimmed mean is calculated as the weighted mean of the central 70% of the quarterly price change distribution of all CPI components, with the annual rates based on compounded quarterly calculations.
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