When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?
|UK Jobs report overview
Early Thursday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the June month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to May at 06:00 AM GMT. Considering the recent whipsaw in British fundamentals, despite the return of the activities from the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led lockdown, today’s data becomes the key for the Cable traders to watch.
The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to May, to decline from the previous 1.0% to -0.4%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are also seen receding from 1.7% to 0.5% in the reported period.
The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is likely to have softened by 250K in June versus +528.9K seen last. Further, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to pick up from 3.9% to 4.2% during the three months ending in May.
Deviation impact on GBP/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined around 20-pips in deviations up to + or -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements over 60-70 pips.
How could they affect GBP/USD?
GBP/USD defies Wednesday’s upbeat performance while flashing 0.23% loss to 1.2560 during the pre-London open on Thursday. The pair cheered welcome UK GDP data and broad US dollar weakness the previous day. Though, fears of an escalation in the Sino-American tension, as well as Brexit woes and COVID-19 worries, seem to have recalled the pair sellers.
Hence, traders will keep eyes on the key employment figures for fresh impulse. Considering the heavy push by the Tory government, British jobs report could keep the GBP/USD pair directed towards June month’s top near 1.2815. However, hopes of witnessing disappointments from the data, followed by the pair’s extended weakness, can’t be ruled out as UK retailers continue to trim staff amid fears of economic slowdown and less demand.
Technically, the pair’s pullback from a 200-day EMA level of 1.2590 drags the quote towards June 24 high of 1.2543, followed by 50-day EMA near 1.2485. Meanwhile, 1.2600 acts as an immediate resistance ahead of the monthly high of 1.2670.
Key notes
GBP/USD Forecast: UK data hits the Pound
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Clings to 200-day EMA in search of further upside
About UK jobs
The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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