When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?
|The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its June 04 monetary policy meeting at 11:30 am Syd/9:30 am Sing/HK and 01:30 GMT on Tuesday. The central bank met market-wide expectations of announcing a quarter percentage cut to its benchmark cash rate during the meeting. As a result, investors will seek more details of the catalysts that led to such a decision in order to predict any such upcoming moves and predict near-term trade direction of the AUD/USD pair.
Ahead of the minutes, Westpac expects fewer clues of future rate cuts from today’s minute statement as it says:
The RBA of course cut the cash rate 25bp to 1.25%, its first such move since 2016. The cut was 100% priced in, having been effectively confirmed by Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May. Later on the day of the meeting, Lowe said it was “not unreasonable” to expect another rate cut, given that the technical assumption of 2 rate cuts in the May forecasts. But if we see a heavy hint of when the next cut will come, it seems more likely to be delivered in Thursday’s speech by Lowe rather than in the minutes.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
While latest prints of higher than expected unemployment rate triggered pessimism surrounding the Australian economy, hints giving more importance to the labor market data in the minute statement could drag the AUD/USD pair further towards the south. Additionally, concerns for the US-China trade tussle could also weigh on the Aussie.
Technically, 2016 lows around 0.6830 and January month’s flash crash bottom close to 0.6730 are on the seller’s radar unless the pair manages to clear 0.6900 immediate resistances that hold the gate for 0.6930, 0.6960 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7010 during further upside.
Key Notes
AUD/USD awaits RBA minutes, consolidates downtrend
AUD/USD technical analysis: Aussie bears challenge May lows and hit levels not seen since January
AUD/USD Analysis: getting ready for a long-term slump
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
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