When are the RBA minutes and how could they affect AUD/USD?
|RBA minutes overview
The RBA minutes are due today at 1230GMT after the RBA, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting, unchanged yet again.
The RBA's October Statement was just as neutral in tone and it is unlikely that there would be a shift in tone from the Central Bank's outlook within the minutes.
Analysts at TD Securities, however, suggested to look out for some of the inclusion of some "member discussion" about the main conclusions from the semi-annual Financial Stability Review.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD has been under pressure to test below the 0.7850 mark with a daily close. However, the price is yet to reverse the traction that was found until a few pips below 0.7900. Therefore, on any bullish surprise or a hawkish hint within the minutes, the bulls are likely to take on 0.7870 resistance level just ahead of the 38.2% retracement currently at 0.7883. There is scope for recovery into the 0.7920/60 thereafter. To the downside, the 200 hourly SMA is located at 0.7809.
Key notes:
AUD/USD could re-test 0.7950 – UOB
AUD: 0.80 level an anchor point amid lack of catalysts - ING
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
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