When are Aussie jobs and how could they affect AUD/USD?
|Overview of Australian jobs report (Feb)
Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today. The report will be released at 12:30 GMT and markets are looking for a 20,000 rise in total employment and for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.5%, just above 5-year lows, as noted by analysts at Westpac, explaining:
"Australia’s data highlight for the week, February labour force. The report is always closely watched but given that employment has risen for a record 16 consecutive months, a single month’s survey will not change the overall picture of swift job creation but limited impact on the unemployment rate. Consensus is for a 20k rise in total employment and for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.5%, just above 5 year lows. Westpac is on 25k and 5.5%."
- Employment Change expected +20.0K, prior +16.0K.
- Unemployment Rate expected 5.5%, prior 5.5%.
- Full Time Employment Change prior was -49.8K.
- Part Time Employment Change prior was +65.9K.
- Participation Rate expected is 65.6%, prior was 65.6%.
NAB:
- Labour market conditions are a key signpost for the RBA's policy setting
- Markets expect the upcoming jobs data to be consistent with the RBA's "improving, but gradually" outlook
- NAB is also expecting unchanged unemployment rate, but for jobs growth to be much softer (+8k), and the participation rate to soften a touch (65.5%). The NAB survey employment sub-index suggests that employment growth should be running at around 27k per month. This is well below the average growth of around 35k we've seen over the past 12 months, and we are expecting the ABS measure to show softer jobs growth this year. Taken alongside our internal leading indicators, which have been much softer this month, we are looking for a below-market jobs growth of +8k.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Overnight, the Aussie was down at 0.7680 at one stage before shorts were covered ahead of the FOMC event taking the Aussie back to 0.7720. 0.7780 was hit on the outcome before closing back at 0.7764, better bid. There is scope to 0.7800, 15th March highs, with a run to 0.7820 (200-4hr SMA). 0.7650 meets the rising daily trend line on the flip side with 0.7700 an import level on the hourly charts.
Key notes
- AUD/USD analysis: Australian employment data up next
- Fed Analysis: Dollar does not like the dot-plot mini-upgrade
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About Aussie jobs data
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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