Week ahead: Canada macro digest - TD Securities
|"Markets will need to balance the signals from top-tier data, central bank speeches and the federal fiscal update over the coming week," said TD Securities analysts.
Key quotes
"Friday's dual release of October CPI and September retail sales will be the most consequential to the outlook for near-term tightening while a speech by the BoC's Wilkins and a pair of panel discussions are less likely to move the needle. It has been reported that Wednesday's fiscal update will address competitiveness but we do not think the federal government will go so far as a corporate tax cut."
"FX Market Outlook: Local drivers should shift onto the radar screen this week, reflecting a few top-tier data releases. Upbeat data would offer some support to the loonie, especially as the USD starts the week on the back foot. The USD move mostly demonstrates some reduction in European political stress, which shouldn't offer much support to CAD. Still, a pullback in the USD would also offer some support to the enfeebled oil market and risk assets more broadly. That backdrop could help USDCAD inch a touch lower this week, though HFFV sits at 1.33. As a result, we expect some consolidation near the top-end of the range near 1.32, although that just offers more attractive levels to buy ahead of 1.30."
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