USDCHF remains dicey near 0.9450 as traders await Swiss trade data, SNB’s Maechler

• USDCHF licks its wounds after falling the most since January 2015 last week.
• US Dollar’s failure to cheer risk-aversion, strong Retail Sales data challenge buyers.
• Hawkish comments from SNB’s Jordan contrast with downbeat Fedspeak to keep sellers hopeful ahead of the key data/events.

USDCHF repeats its sluggish momentum around 0.9450, consolidating the most significant weekly loss in seven years during early Thursday. In addition to balancing losses, mixed catalysts and cautious mood ahead of Swiss trade numbers for October, as well as a speech from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board Member Andréa M. Maechler, also restrict immediate moves of the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair.

In doing so, the quote failed to portray the market’s risk-off mood as the US dollar remains depressed despite the latest rebound. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) treads water around 106.30 after declining in the last two days.

It should be noted that the greenback’s latest inaction could be linked to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ sustained support for an easy rate hike in December. With this, the Fed policymakers resist praising the three-year high US Retail Sales, which rose 1.3% MoM in October versus 1.0% expected and 0.0% prior.

Elsewhere, market sentiment remains sour amid mixed concerns over the rocket fires in Poland and China’s coronavirus woes.

The news that Russian-made rockets were fired at Poland and killed two people triggered emergency meetings of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Group of Seven (G7. However, the updates shared by the Associated Press (AP) quoted an anonymous US official’s findings while mentioning that the missile may have been fired by Ukraine, which allowed Moscow to criticize Kyiv for the same and worsen the mood.

On the other hand, China’s Coronavirus numbers reached the highest levels since April 2021 and raised fears of more lockdowns in the world’s largest industrial player, as well as Australia’s key customer.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red but the US Treasury yields struggled to stage recovery. That said, the S&P 500 Futures printed mild losses by the press time after reversing from the monthly high the previous day.

The Swiss Trade Balance for October, expected at 3,698M versus 4,003M prior, could initially entertain USDCHF traders ahead of a speech from SNB’s Maechler. Given the recently hawkish comments from SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, upbeat statements from Maechler could recall the sellers.

Technical analysis

Although multiple supports around 0.9355-70 challenge USDCHF bears, a clear downside break of the 10-month-old ascending trend line, near 0.9500 by the press time, keeps buyers away.