USD: Retail Sales data sparks caution – UBS
|In a recent analysis by UBS, Paul Donovan discusses the implications of the latest US Retail Sales data, which showed slight softness. Donovan emphasizes the importance of understanding the context of these numbers, particularly in light of inflation effects.
Donovan also notes the potential for revisions and the impact of changing consumption patterns. Despite concerns, he suggests that there is no immediate cause for alarm based on credit card data.
Retail sales data prompts cautious outlook
"US September retail sales data were old news, but slightly softer. While it is tempting to blame the accelerating US inflation rate, retail sales are nominal numbers and include inflation effects. Pessimism should be limited, however. The numbers will almost certainly be revised."
"Ongoing shifts in consumption patterns have consequences (Instagrammers showcasing their latest holiday contribute less to retail sales than buyers of new washing machines). Credit card data suggests no reason to panic."
"The data drought of the US government shutdown places excessive emphasis on old data—and also anecdotal data like today’s Federal Reserve Beige Book. This has shown some signs of political bias in the comments. Anecdotes on whether tariff passthrough is speeding up is of interest."
(This story has been created with the assistance of AI.)
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.