USD: NFP risk skews to softer data – Societe Generale
|Societe Generale analysts note that the Dollar is on the back foot into US NFP, with recent weak retail sales driving a tactical bid in Treasuries. They argue soft employment data could push 10-year UST yields towards 4.0% and trigger a dovish repricing of the March FOMC meeting, currently priced at just -5bp.
Soft NFP could hit Dollar further
"Payrolls Wednesday, bonds bid, dollar on the backfoot."
"Soft employment data today could be the trigger for a retracement towards 4.0% and spur a dovish repricing of the March FOMC meeting from a trivial -5bp this morning."
"The context to today’s delayed NFP report: the US labour force is shrinking, employment growth is slowing, but the FOMC statement two weeks ago upgraded the labour market assessment."
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