US week ahead: ISM and NFP - Danske Bank
|In the US, analysts at Danske Bank expect a few important data releases over the next week: ISM manufacturing for June is due out on Monday and the jobs report for June on Friday.
Key Quotes:
“We expect ISM to decrease and come in at 50.8, down from 52.2 In our view, the US manufacturing sector is not immune to the global slowdown but we think the index will remain just above the important 50 threshold. That said, risk is skewed on the downside.”
“The labour market has started to show some weakness, so we think it is important to keep an eye on employment growth, which is an important recession indicator, in our view. The average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls has declined to 164,000 this year, from 223,000 in 2018. We expect employment growth to come in around 175,000. We estimate average hourly earnings rose +0.20% m/m in June, unchanged at 3.1% y/y.”
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