US nonfarm payrolls preview - Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for this week's key US nonfarm payrolls data.
Key Quotes:
"We expect a 175k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in October as modest positive payback from Hurricane Florence is offset by weakness due to Hurricane Michael."
"While incoming employment data has remained strong, the timing of Hurricane Michael’s landfall, albeit in a less-populated region relative to Hurricane Irma in 2017, suggests that business disruptions and civilian evacuations may have depressed payroll numbers during the month. We expect a modest 0.17% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings (AHE)."
"Unusually large increases in AHE in the Carolinas during September, likely weather related, may revert in October, offsetting any weather effect from Hurricane Michael."
"However, the position of the BLS survey week relative to the first of the month suggests a modest downward bias on monthly AHE growth. Despite this downward bias, base effects are likely to push up AHE growth on a 12-month basis to 3.08%, its highest level since April 2009."
"We expect the unemployment rate to remain at a low-3.7% after a sharp decline in September."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.