US EIA expects an oversupply, lower oil prices, and falling US oil production – Commerzbank
|The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in contrast, has significantly revised its estimate of the supply surplus on the oil market upwards and now expects inventories to build by more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day
"This is 800,000 barrels per day more than it has previously forecast. For this reason, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to fall to an average of $58 per barrel in the fourth quarter and to an average of $50 per barrel at the beginning of 2026. The lower oil price level means that US crude oil production is likely to decline significantly next year."
"The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day on average for the year and 400,000 barrels per day compared to the end of this year. The record level is now expected to be reached in December 2025 at 13.57 million barrels per day. Thereafter, production volumes are set to decline steadily."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.