US economic outlook dims, Blue Wave best for revival – Reuters poll
|Another wave of coronavirus surge in the US is seemingly dimming the outlook for the economic recovery ahead of next week’s Presidential election, economists polled by Reuters believed.
Key findings
“Nearly two-thirds of 58 economists who responded to an additional question in the Oct 16-26 poll said there was a high risk that the U.S. economic rebound could be halted by the surge in coronavirus cases, including five who said it was very high.
The result of the Nov. 3 US presidential election, if available promptly, could swiftly end the gridlock on a second fiscal stimulus bill.
Democratic control of the Senate, along with a win for the party’s presidential candidate Joe Biden, was predicted to yield a stronger near-term economic recovery, according to nearly 75% of 59 analysts who responded to an additional question.
Over 80%, or 41 of 49 respondents, said the US jobless rate would not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2023 at least, including two respondents who said it never would.
The wider poll showed the jobless rate averaging 8.3% this year, 6.8% next and 5.5% in 2022. It was 3.5% earlier this year before the pandemic took hold.
It is forecast to grow 4% this quarter after an expected record rebound of 31% last quarter.
For this year, the world’s largest economy is forecast to shrink 4%, according to the poll of 120 economists.
The consensus for 2021 and 2022 was for 3.7% and 2.9% growth, respectively.
Of the economists who expect more stimulus, the median was $1.8 trillion, within a $0.5-$3.5 trillion range.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.