UK: Key economic events ahead – Nomura
|
Analysts at Nomura enlist the key macro events due on the cards from the UK docket today, with the key CPI and PPI figures due at 0930GMT.
Consumer prices:
“We expect CPI inflation to have fallen by two tenths in December, from 3.1% in November to 2.9% in December.
This may not be the start of a continued fall, however, with our current forecasts having inflation rising slightly in January before embarking on a trend decline thereafter back towards its target.
We see RPI inflation falling by 0.1pp in December (3.9% to 3.8%) - this fall is less than that of CPI inflation due to the RPI-CPI wedge rising 0.1pp thanks to the BoE's November rate rise, which raises the mortgage interest component of the RPI.
Our forecast of a fall in inflation in December before temporarily rising in January is consistent with anecdotal evidence showing significant discounting ahead of Christmas (note the fall in the BRC shop price index).”
Producer prices:
“The CBI and PMI output price indices moved in different directions in December - CBI up, PMI down.
What they have in common is that they are both historically high and well above their averages over the past 20 years.
As a result, we expect another 0.3% m-o-m rise in headline and also core output prices in December. The combination of higher sterling during the month and a rise in crude oil prices should keep input prices broadly static.“
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.