The Euro may suffer in the medium term – Commerzbank
|The situation in France may have little impact on the Euro (EUR). Usually, investors do not necessarily have to buy OATs, but can fall back on German government bonds as a safe haven. Furthermore, the ECB would most likely be ready to step in if the spreads widened too much, counteracting this with asset purchases, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Politics is weighing on Euro's upside potential
"Nevertheless, developments in the political situation in France could become a latent burden on the Euro in the medium term. If the National Assembly in France is dissolved and new elections are called, the political parties on the left and right wings in France (similar to other European countries) could gain support. The parties on the right wing in particular are often skeptical of the European Union, the Euro zone, and the Euro."
"In my opinion, increasing political division within the Euro zone would be a negative factor for the Euro, as the market would factor in a risk premium, no matter what the ECB could do. After all, there could be a greater risk of the Euro zone drifting apart rather than continuing to grow closer together economically and politically. Countries with stronger fiscal backgrounds could call into question the future of joint Euro zone bonds if countries such as France are unwilling to tackle their budgetary problems through reforms. The willingness to 'stand up' for these countries' debts despite their lack of budgetary discipline could decline. At the same time, political statements in favor of leaving the Euro zone (and the EU) would likely increase as parties on the fringes gain greater influence."
"Whether these scenarios are really realistic would probably not be the crux of the matter. But the mere fact that political cohesion within the Euro zone would be increasingly questioned could weigh on the single currency. I don't think there would be a sudden slide in the Euro. But there could be a subliminal, constant factor weighing on the Euro's upside potential."
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