Oil: Attention shifts to OPEC+ – ING
|Oil prices edged marginally lower yesterday, a move that continued in early morning trading today, as the market increasingly turns its attention towards the OPEC+ meeting this weekend., ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
The geopolitical risk premium erodes following the ceasefire
"The group is expected to agree to another large supply increase of 411k b/d, taking total supply increases since April to almost 1.8m b/d. Given its strategy shift, we believe the group will continue with these large increases. This would see the full 2.2m b/d of supply brought back online by the end of the third quarter, 12 months ahead of the original schedule."
"These larger supply increases should leave the global oil market well supplied for the remainder of the year. It’s set to return to a large surplus in the fourth quarter of this year. Clearly, recent price action suggests the market is mostly focused on this supply."
"The geopolitical risk premium has eroded fairly quickly following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Expectations for a comfortable oil balance, along with a large amount of OPEC spare production capacity, appear to be comforting the market."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.