Market reversals and CPI anticipation: What's ahead for S&P 500 and commodities?
|S&P 500 reversed mid session, but it would be premature to call for the end of the correction – odds are that following today‘s rebound, which I saw as likely to stall in the 4,535 area as easy gains from rotation into beaten down sectors are made, and those defensives with energy won‘t be as generous today.
For now, stocks will try to position optimisticallty for low CPI (below 3.3% or better yet below 3.2%), and the degree to which they would be able to peek above 4,535 would provide a hint as much as real assets, yields and the dollar.
I‘m looking for modest traces of optimism that would be reversed tomorrow as CPI comes hotter than expected, catching markets off guarf – and boosting Fed raising bets correspondingly.
More stock market sectoral and other analysis can be found in the chart section.
Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
Gold, Silver and miners
Gold is still grinding lower, and may reach a good few bucks below yesterday‘s lows while waiting for CPI – all that‘s needed is a bit rising yields again, which is e.g. on 10y doable (above 4.10% again). Silver together with copper are to face greater pressure than gold before the announcement while oil gets least challenged even in the aftermath. Energy is making a comeback, and natgas is also likely to extend gains – good seasonality is here.
Crude Oil
Crude oil didn‘t proceed to bulding a bull flag – does it seek to make a running correction where prices only temporarily retreat? Volume behind buyers following every decline, is suggesting that – but I would still look for a quick and relatively shallow pullback into tomorrow‘s CPI – then the upswing can continue as the tightening dust is likeliest to settle down here first.
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