Malaysia: Exports surged to multi-year highs in March – UOB
|UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest trade data in Malaysia.
Key Quotes
“Export growth came in much stronger-than-expected at 31.0% y/y in Mar (Feb: +17.6%), with the absolute export value reaching a record high of MYR104.9bn (Feb: MYR87.6bn). March’s export growth marked the highest monthly reading since Jul 2017. It came ahead of ours (+18.5%) and Bloomberg (+22.7%) estimates. Imports advanced 19.2% y/y (Feb: +12.7%) to the highest ever level at MYR80.8bn (Feb: MYR69.7bn). This lifted the trade surplus by 96.1% y/y to MYR24.2bn (Feb: +41.7% to MYR17.9bn).”
“Exports strengthened 18.2% y/y while imports rose 10.8% y/y in 1Q21. The strong trade performance augers well for the current account surplus and helps to cushion the impact of COVID-19 containment measures on overall GDP during the quarter. We estimate that the MYR58.6bn trade surplus in 1Q21 (4Q20: +MYR59.9bn) to translate into a current account surplus of ~MYR18.0bn last quarter (4Q20: +MYR19.0bn). Exports increased at a faster pace relative to imports, net trade is expected to contribute positively to overall GDP in 1Q21.”
“The year-to-date export momentum is in line with our expectations, supported by improving global demand, ongoing trade diversion and diversification, global tech upcycle, and favourable base effects. We reiterate our 2021 full-year export growth forecast of 15.0% (2020: -1.4%). Potential upside catalysts to our export outlook include progressive global vaccination roll-outs and faster reopening of international borders, while downside risks could come from new COVID19 variants, delays or less effective vaccines that could slow the global recovery.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.