Key US data preview: US durable goods - Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of tomorrow's key US data as follow:
Key Quotes:
"Durable goods orders: Excluding volatile transportation orders, we expect a flat reading for January core durable goods orders (Consensus: +0.4% m-o-m).
Based on the January industrial production report we estimate the output of durable goods excluding transportation equipment rose only modestly by 0.1% m-o-m.
Although the January issue of the ISM manufacturing survey suggests healthy manufacturing activity, the indicator of new orders moderated somewhat from December.
Based on these data, we expect ex-transportation durable goods orders to essentially remain flat in January. For aggregate goods orders, we expect a 1.5% decline (Consensus: 2.0% decline).
Much of this forecast is driven by our expectation of a sharp reversal from the previous month’s gains in civilian and defence aircraft and parts orders.
While new orders of vehicle and vehicle parts likely rose decently because of the increase in vehicle assemblies in January, we think the gain will not be enough to offset a forceful mean reversion in new aircraft orders."
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