Japanese Yen sticks to strong gains as intervention risks persist; USD/JPY hangs near 154.00
|- Japanese Yen kicks off the new week on a stronger note amid rising intervention fears.
- Takaichi warned against speculative moves following a rate check from Japan’s MOF.
- The divergent BoJ-Fed outlooks and sustained USD selling further weigh on USD/JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to strong gains for the second straight day and trades near its highest level since November 14 against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday. Following rate checks from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the New York Federal Reserve (Fed) on Friday, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned against speculative moves on Sunday. This heightens the chance of joint US-Japan intervention to stem any further JPY weakness and provides a strong boost at the start of a new week.
Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish outlook, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, turns out to be another factor underpinning the JPY's safe-haven status. The USD, on the other hand, dives to its lowest level since September 2025 on the back of the so-called 'Sell America' trade and bets that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs two more times this year. The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations contribute to the USD/JPY pair's intraday slump to sub-154.00 levels and back the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
Japanese Yen remains well supported by intervention talks, BoJ rate hike bets and safe-haven flows
- Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned on Sunday that officials stand ready to take necessary steps against speculative and highly abnormal market moves. This comes on top of market chatter that the New York Federal Reserve conducted rate checks on the USD/JPY pair around midday on Friday, following a similar call from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. This suggests that authorities may be preparing to intervene in the currency market.
- Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said on Monday that he will take appropriate action on foreign exchange according to the Japan-US joint statement. However, he declined to comment regarding reported rate checks.
- The Bank of Japan, as expected, maintained short-term interest rates at 0.75% by an 8-1 vote at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday. Moreover, the central bank raised its economic and inflation forecasts, and signaled its readiness to continue hiking still-low borrowing costs. This further contributes to the Japanese Yen's outperformance against its American counterpart and drags the USD/JPY pair to its lowest level since November 14.
- US President Donald Trump's tariff threats to gain control of Greenland, along with a standoff with European allies, raised doubts about the long-standing NATO alliances and led to the loss of trust in global leadership. This, in turn, revives the so-called 'Sell America' trade and weighs heavily on the US Dollar amid expectations for more policy easing by the US central bank, which marks a significant divergence in comparison to the BoJ's hawkish tilt.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data for short-term opportunities later during the North American session on Monday. The focus, however, will remain glued to the highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting, starting on Tuesday. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and determining the near-term trajectory for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY bears flirt with the 100-day SMA pivotal support near the 154.00 mark
From a technical perspective, a sustained break and acceptance below the 154.00 horizontal support, also nearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bears. Momentum has deteriorated as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below the zero line and extends lower, hinting at building bearish pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 32, near oversold, suggesting downside momentum is stretched, and a bounce could develop if buyers defend the 100-day SMA. A daily close below that support would risk a deeper pullback, while stabilization above it would keep the broader bullish structure in place.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.35% | -0.20% | -1.12% | -0.13% | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.59% | |
| EUR | 0.35% | 0.15% | -0.75% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.14% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | -0.15% | -0.91% | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | 1.12% | 0.75% | 0.91% | 0.99% | 0.82% | 0.91% | 0.53% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.22% | -0.07% | -0.99% | -0.17% | -0.08% | -0.46% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | -0.06% | 0.09% | -0.82% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.91% | 0.08% | -0.08% | -0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.59% | 0.24% | 0.39% | -0.53% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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