India: New GDP base and solid 7.3% growth forecast – DBS
|DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights a rebased GDP series to be released on February 27, shifting calculations from 2011–12 to 2022–23 and incorporating new surveys and COICOP 2018. DBS forecasts real GDP growth at 7.3% year-on-year in 3QFY26 (4Q25), viewing the revised series as a better gauge of underlying activity.
Rebasing to refine growth measurement
"A new rebased GDP series will be released on 27-Feb, with revisions expected to capture more recent economic shifts, data categorisation changes, increased digitisation and formalisation of the economy, besides other shifts."
"Calculations will be rebased from 2011-12 to 2022-23."
"For instance, supply side GVA gauge for the unincorporated sector is proposed to be estimated using data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey."
"For estimation of private consumption expenditure (PFCE), a mixed approach will be adopted, amalgamating data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey, direct estimation based on production and other data sources as well as commodity flow approach."
"We forecast real GDP at 7.3% yoy in 3QFY26 (4Q25) basis the current trend, with the revised number likely to be a better representative of underlying economic activity."
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