Gold & Silver reverse dip, rally to fresh session highs – OCBC
|Prices of Gold and Silver reversed the earlier dip to trade fresh highs for the session. The earlier dip was a knee-jerk response to new margin changes. Effective after the close of business on 13 January, the margins for Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium will be based on a percentage of notional instead of the current approach of margins based on a dollar amount, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.
Silver tightness and macro tailwinds underpin bullish outlook
"CME had previously raised the margin requirements on precious metal futures twice in the last week of Dec 2025, following a bout of volatility. Margin increases can lead to a reduction in positions especially when market liquidity conditions are less liquid. While this may undermine prices, this should not be misinterpreted as a shift in fundamental story. That said, markets may still take this opportunity to gauge if prices of precious metals continue to hold up."
"Notwithstanding the risk of a near term pullback, the fundamental story remains intact. For Gold, the Venezuela episode, Trump’s comments on Greenland, and highly fluid developments in Iran underscores the persistence of geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of episodic flare-ups across multiple regions, even when individual events may de-escalate quickly. The combination of structural demand, macro tailwinds, set in an environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty should remain supportive of Gold outlook."
"Persistent physical market tightness and investor demand, compounded by recent regulatory shifts in China are some of the drivers underpinning the constructive outlook for Silver. On a technical note, Gold was last seen at 4633.00 levels. Daily momentum is mildly bullish but rise is RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Risk of pullback not ruled out in the near term. Support at 4454 (23.6% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 4416 (21 DMA)."
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