Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hangs near weekly low, around $1,735 ahead of FOMC minutes
|- Gold price lacks any firm directional bias and remains confined in a range just above the weekly low.
- Bets for less aggressive Fed rate hikes weigh on the USD and offer some support to the commodity.
- A positive risk tone caps gains for the XAU/USD as traders keenly await the FOMC meeting minutes.
Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. The XAU/USD is currently hovering near the weekly low, just above the $1,735 level, as traders await the November FOMC meeting minutes before placing fresh directional bets.
The recent hawkish signals by several Federal Reserve officials suggest that the US central bank might continue to tighten its monetary policy to tame inflation. Hence, investors will closely scrutinize the minutes for fresh clues on the Fed's future rate hikes. This will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding Gold price.
In the meantime, rising bets for a relatively smaller 50 bps lift-off at the next FOMC policy meeting in December keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the Dollar-denominated Gold price. That said, a generally positive risk tone acts as a headwind and seems to cap the safe-haven precious metal.
Heading into the key event risk, market participants will look to the US macro releases - Durable Goods Orders and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - for some trading opportunities around the Gold price. The mixed fundamental backdrop, however, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bets and supports prospects for an extension of the sideways consolidative price move.
From a technical perspective Gold price seems to have pulled back down to a key support level in the $1,720-30 region at the level of a neckline of what was probably a double bottom reversal pattern that formed between September and November of 2022. Bulls are likely to reemerge at this point and attempt to push price back up off the support, and it is possible it may become the base for a rebound and continuation higher. A clear break below the support zone, however, would probably lead a volatile sell-off as bulls capitulate under renewed bearish pressure.
Technical levels to watch
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