Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends slide toward $1,850, eyes 200-day SMA at $1,840
|- Gold remains on track to close third straight day in the negative territory.
- XAU/USD seems to have broken below the two-month-old ascending trend line.
- Markets' focus shifts to FOMC's policy announcements on Wednesday.
After closing the first day of the week in the negative territory, gold remains on the back foot on Tuesday and was last seen trading at $1,855, where it was down 0.55% on a daily basis.
On Monday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained more than 2% and made it difficult for gold to find demand. Although the 10-year US T-bond yield stays relatively quiet near 1.5% on Tuesday, the bearish shift in the near-term technical outlook seems to be making it difficult for the precious metal to attract investors.
Meanwhile, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Tuesday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for final demand rose to 6.6% on a yearly basis in May from 6.2% in April. With this reading surpassing the market expectation of 6.3%, investors seem to be opting out to stay on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC's policy announcements on Wednesday.
Previewing the FOMC's June meeting, "the Fed is running out of time. This may be the final meeting where the market will give the FOMC a pass before soaring prices force the credit markets to make their own choice," said FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani. "Be that as it may, Mr. Powell will do his best to delay that reckoning until the fall."
Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview: Chair Powell will determine market response.
Other data from the US revealed on Tuesday that Retail Sales declined by 1.3% in May, compared to analysts' estimate for a fall of 0.8%, and the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to 17.4 in June from 24.3 in May. Nevertheless, these data failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
Gold technical outlook
With Tuesday's drop, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropped below 50 for the first time in two months, suggesting that the bearish pressure continues to build up. Additionally, gold remains on track to close below the 20-day SMA for the third straight day. Finally, the price seems to have broken below the ascending trend line coming from early April, confirming the bearish shift in the near term technical outlook.
Currently, XAU/USD is testing the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, which is currently located at $1,855. With a daily close below that level, the next target is located at $1,840 (200-day SMA) ahead of $1,830 (50-day SMA).
On the upside, the initial hurdle is located at $1,885, where the 20-day SMA converges with the trend line mentioned above. In case buyers manage to lift the price above this strong resistance, the next line of defence could be seen at $1,900 (psychological level).
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