Gold Price Forecast: Bull’s eye $1,800 as US T-bond yields plummet as central banks cut stimulus
|- The Bank of Canada adds to the RBNZ as the only central banks that finished its pandemic QE.
- US T-bond yields plunged once the BoC decision hit the wires.
- Gold aims higher, as nervousness grows on investors, of what the Federal Reserve might do next.
Gold (XAU/USD) climbs during the New York session, is up 0.20%, trading at $1,796.47 a troy ounce at the time of writing. The non-yielding metal recovered some of its brightness as the session progressed, boosted by safe-haven flows.
Risk-off market sentiment spurred my month-end flows and US fiscal policy concerns, kept investors at bay. Furthermore, the economic growth outlook and central bank tightening monetary policy conditions seem to weigh on lately, hurting the greenback thus favoring gold.
In the meantime, the US T-bond yields plummet in the session, with the 10-year note breaking decisively below the 1.60% threshold, sitting at 1.535% down eight basis points, weighing on the greenback, as noted by the US Dollar Index falling 0.16%, at 93.79.
It is worth noting that on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada ended its weekly bond-purchasing program, that in turn, weighed on investors as yields plunged severely in the session.
That said, expectations around gold lie heavily on the Federal Reserve November meeting. A $15 Billion bond taper is priced in. However, If the Federal Reserve aims for a quicker than expected bond-tapering, that might send gold tumbling below the $1,720 threshold and potentially towards a renewed test of 2021 lows.
XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Daily chart
Gold (XAU/USD) spot price is above the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving average (DMA) and on Tuesday broke a downward slope trendline previously resistance-turned-support, which could be viewed as a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, aims slightly low, but as it remains above the 50-midline, it is bullish for the yellow metal.
To resume the upward trend, gold buyers will need a daily close above $1,800. In that outcome, the September 3 high at $1,834 would be the first resistance level. A clear break above the latter would expose the June 4 low at $1,855, followed by the $1,900 threshold.
XAU/USD TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
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