Forex Today: Dollar looks strong, oil extends fall, all eyes on first corona-linked Non-Farm Payrolls
|Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 3:
The US dollar has been consolidating its gains as tension mounts toward the US Non-Farm Payrolls, in typical jobs Friday trading. Economists expect the first coronavirus-impacted jobs figures to show a loss of only 100,000 jobs.
It is critical to remember that the government conducts surveys for the NFP on the week that consists of March 12 – thus not capturing the latest lockdowns. Wage growth is set to increase by 0.2% monthly and 3% annually.
See:
- Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Is the dollar’s fate sealed?
- US Non-Farm Payrolls March preview: If it’s terrible, it’s expected, if it’s not, April will be
The more up-to-date Unemployment Claims figures for the week ending on March 28 have shown a doubling to 6.648 million – beyond the worst estimates – and while several states struggled to process all requests. Lockdowns are taking their toll and the economic damage is here to stay.
COVID-19 has already infected more than one million people and taken the lives of over 50,000. Around 50% of the deaths are in Italy, Spain, and France, while around a quarter of infections are in the US. Washington State has extended its stay-at-home orders until May 4, while several European countries are on course to lengthen the confinements to beyond Easter.
Europe: The European Commission and the Eurogroup have been trying to find creative solutions to providing aid to stricken countries while refraining from mutualizing the debt – which Germany opposes. Negotiations continue. EUR/USD has completed a fall of more than 50% from the 1.0640-1.1150 rise.
In the UK, the number of mortalities continues rising quickly, but that is partially due to a change in counting methodology. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak expanded the business loan scheme to medium-sized companies. GBP/USD failed in several attempts to break higher.
Oil prices are trying to stabilize after a wild ride on Thursday. President Donald Trump said he hopes Russia and Saudi Arabia will strike a deal to cut ten and potentially 15 million barrels of daily crude production.
While Saudi Arabia followed up with a call for an urgent OPEC+ meeting, Russia denied any talks were underway. WTI shot higher from around $22 to above $27 before reverting to below $24.
The last word of the week belongs to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. While it is published after the employment statistics, the forward-looking figures may move markets.
See: Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: The disaster may be delayed...until April
Cryptocurrencies have retreated from the highs seen late on Thursday when Bitcoin surpassed the $7,000 mark.
More: Explained: What indicators matter in coronavirus times
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