Forex Today: Boris gets a blow from big poll, tariff threat looms, focus on the Fed
|Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 11:
UK Elections: YouGov's second broad MRP survey has shown a significant narrowing of the gap in favor of the Conservatives – to 28 against 68 two weeks ago – with the polling firm noting that a hung parliament has a real chance. GBP/USD has fallen off the highs, 24 hours before voting begins. Investors would prefer a solid Tory victory. Gross Domestic Product disappointed by remaining flat in October.
Trade war: President Donald Trump has yet to decide on the December 15 tariffs, according to the Wall Street Journal. On the other hand, the paper says that negotiators are laying the groundwork for a deal. Peter Navarro, a hawkish White House adviser, says he has no indication the levies will be postponed. The safe-haven yen and Gold have yet to react.
The Federal Reserve is set to leave interest rates unchanged in its last decision of the year and hint about policy in 2020 via its dot-plot and a press conference held by Chairman Jerome Powell. Most analysts expect only minor changes to the statement.
See
- Federal Reserve Preview: Watching for the Projection Materials
- Fed Preview: Is the bar higher for hiking? Powell's may down the dollar, three things to watch
US data: Unit Third-quarter Labor Costs have been significantly revised lower to 2.5% annualized. Ahead of the Fed, the Consumer Price Index is set to move the US dollar (see preview). Yearly Core CPI is set to remain unchanged at 2.3% in November.
EUR/USD has been edging higher amid upbeat German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Markets are awaiting the European Central Bank decision on Thursday., the first one by Christine Lagarde (see preview)
USMCA: US Democrats and Republicans have reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico on a revised version of the USMCA – the trade agreement that replaces the generation-old NAFTA. The deal was priced in and the images of the signing ceremony in Mexico have failed to boost the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
Emerging economies: The South African rand has come under pressure amid fears of a recession and rolling blackouts. Alberto Fernandez, Argentina's new president, said that his country wants to pay its debts, but cannot.
Cryptocurrencies have been on the back foot, with Bitcoin battling the $7,200 level.
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