Fed Preview: The assumption that the Dollar must rally on a higher dot plot could be misguided – SocGen
|The suspense around the Fed meeting today is not about the decision itself but rather the new projections for (median) interest rates next year. Upgrade of 2024 dot at the last three meetings did not translate into a stronger Dollar or higher 10Y yield, economists at Société Générale report.
Could this time be different?
The assumption that the Dollar must rally on a higher dot plot could be misguided if previous meetings are a guide. At each of the last three previous meetings when the Fed raised the 2024 median dot, the Dollar weakened against the Euro and Sterling. At two meetings, it dropped against the Yen too.
Treasury yields retreated on four occasions on the 10Y, and twice on the 2Y. The biggest move was understandably the one in March when the meeting coincided with SVB. Could this time be different? It’s hard to see the Dollar losing ground at a time when stagflationary concerns are permeating through the Eurozone and the UK, and with lingering doubts over the outlook for China.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.