Exxon at the edge: Can $XOM break into blue skies?
|There is a specific kind of tension that happens when a stock returns to its all-time high (ATH). For Exxon Mobil ($XOM), that level is $126.34. We’ve only seen price action at this altitude once before, back in late 2024, and the rejection was swift.
Now, a year later, the bulls have clawed their way back. But this time, the structure looks different.
The retest of the peak
When a stock hits a new ATH and pulls back, that level becomes the ultimate psychological "ceiling." Some traders call this a "Blue Sky Breakout" setup. Because there is no "overhead supply" (no one is holding bags at higher prices waiting to break even), if the price clears $126.34, it can move much faster because there's no historical resistance left to stop it.
The difference: The rising floor
The reason this second attempt at the ATH is so compelling is the Ascending Support line.
● In late 2024, $XOM hit that $126.34 peak and collapsed nearly 20% down to the $100 level.
● This time, the "floor" has been rising steadily. Buyers are stepping in significantly higher than they did last year.
$XOM isn’t just "poking" at the high; it’s building a base right underneath it. This is what technical traders refer to as volatility compression. The price is being squeezed between the all-time high and the 12-month uptrend.
What to watch for
Since price has only been here once, the first touch of the yellow line ($126.34) might see some profit-taking. That's normal. The "real" signal isn't just touching $126—it’s holding it.
● The Bull Case: We consolidate just below the ATH for a few days, then blast through on high volume. This would confirm the Ascending Triangle and signal a move into uncharted territory.
● The Bear Case: We "double top." If $XOM hits the yellow line and we see a massive sell-off similar to October 2024, the triangle could break to the downside, sending us back to the $115 area.
The Bottom Line: $XOM are at the finish line of a year-long marathon. Exxon is looking to prove that its 2024 peak wasn't a fluke, but the starting block for the next major leg up. Keep your eyes on the daily close.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.