EUR/JPY gathers strength above 162.00 amid trade-related uncertainty
|- EUR/JPY climbs to around 162.20 in Monday’s Asian session.
- EU considers tweaking methane rules for US gas to help trade talks, Reuters said.
- Rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike might boost the JPY and cap the upside for the cross.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day near 162.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid encouraging signals of trade talks between the US and the European Union.
US President Donald Trump's trade war remains a source of deep uncertainty. However, the European Commission is working on its offer for trade talks with the US to attempt to avoid Trump's planned tariffs, with both sides signaling that energy could form part of a broader trade deal. The optimism surrounding trade negotiation could provide some support to the shared currency against the JPY in the near term.
The upside for the Euro might be limited due to the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB decided to cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting last week. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference that US tariffs on EU goods, which had increased from an average of 3% to 13%, were already harming the outlook for the European economy.
On the other hand, the rising speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates could lift the JPY and act as a headwind for EUR/JPY. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that Japan's real interest rates remain very low and that the BoJ is expected to keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with projections. The view was further echoed by BoJ board member Junko Nagakawa.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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