EUR is strengthening modestly – Scotiabank
|Euro (EUR) is up a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Markets eye heavy ECB speech calendar with easing still priced into year-end
"Fundamentals are offering little from a directional perspective as interest rate differentials have fallen back into their prior range and reversed their recent EUR-supportive gains. This week’s release calendar is limited to investor confidence (Tuesday) and industrial production (Friday) and there is a heavy ECB calendar with about 15 speeches scheduled ahead of Friday."
"The focus for the ECB is on the near-term path for policy and uncertainty around the need for further easing. Markets are still pricing 25bpts of easing by December while some policymakers have expressed confidence in the possibility that the ECB has already reached its terminal rate for this latest easing cycle."
"The EUR’s technicals remain bullish, despite signs of minor exhaustion and its inability to extend much beyond 1.1400. The multimonth trend remains bullish and support has been observed at the 50 day MA (1.1271). The RSI is at 57 and well short of overbought levels. We look to near-term support around 1.1350 and near-term resistance around 1.15."
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