ECB Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for EUR/USD – TDS
|Economists at TD Securities discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and their implications for the EUR/USD pair.
Hawkish (20%)
Same as Base Case for policy & forecasts, but the Governing Council says that it will start to reduce PEPP reinvestments in 2024H1 and will finalise the pace early next year. The press conference has a hawkish tone, with the ‘high for long’ bias reinforced by a reduction in PEPP reinvestments sometime in 24H1. EUR/USD +0.30%.
Base Case (65%)
The ECB leaves all policy rates on hold. Growth and inflation forecasts are cut in 23/24, with at-target forecasts in 2026. President Christine Lagarde pushes back mildly against market pricing during the press conference, saying that the ECB will keep rates ‘high for long’. She says market pricing reflects a different base case than the ECB's. EUR/USD -0.10%.
Dovish (15%)
Policy and forecasts same as Base Case. President Lagarde is asked about market pricing for cuts and doesn't push back at all, saying it's possible that the ECB could cut by March if the inflation outlook improves that much. EUR/USD +0.50%.
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