Coronavirus: Deeper recession and longer rebound – ABN Amro
|Economists at ABN Amro have revised down their global economic growth forecasts. They expect a deeper economic contraction in the near term, but also a longer delay before a strong and durable rebound takes shape.
Key quotes
“After a sharp Q3 bounce, economic growth will be more subdued in the months thereafter.”
“We have downgraded our Q1 forecast on the back of the macro data published for January-February. We now expect a negative annual growth rate in Q1, followed by a sharp recovery in Q2 extending into Q3.”
We assume initially 1.2% GDP of discretionary fiscal stimulus in the eurozone, and around 2.5% GDP in the US, though more may follow at a later point.
“We think the Fed is now done in terms of the immediate future while the ECB does have more work to do in the near term. We think that at the April Governing Council meeting, it will cut the deposit rate by 10bp to -0.6%.”
“We expect global economic growth to durably move above trend during the course of 2021.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.