China Pig News: 2% herd growth may still leave tight supply after African swine fever epidemic
|- China reported an increase of 2% in the national hed of pigs.
- Prices remain elevated after leaping by 110%.
- Supply remains tight after the African swine fever epidemic.
The number of pigs in the world's second-largest economy has risen by 2% in November – providing some hope that pork supplies will meet demand ahead of China's new year in early 2020. Analysts say that markets will be tight despite the announcement from China's agricultural authorities.
The increase comes after Beijing reported a devastating yearly drop of 41% in the pig headcount in October – around 175 million pigs. The African swine fever epidemic has had a severe impact on hogs and sent their prices up by 110% in November.
The increase had a considerable amount on overall inflation, according to the latest Consumer Price Index figures. CPI leaped to 4.5% year over year in November while producer prices dropped by 1.4%.
Chinese pig prices and the epidemic
Authorities are trying to push prices to lower ground also by releasing frozen pork from commercial warehouses and state reserves. Alongside rising herd numbers and potentially lower consumption due to elevated prices, the Chinese pig market may find its balance.
Nevertheless, African swine fever, like many other diseases, does not have borders and may affect other crises. Monique Eliot, Director General of the World Organization for Animal Health, has warned of a severe crisis spreading to Korea, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and others.
The epidemic broke out in August 2018 and has since killed hundreds of millions of pigs. Outbreaks have spread around the world and went as far as reaching Northern Ireland. The African swine fever virus – which has no vaccine yet – can survive even in frozen meat.
Pig prices may now begin a decline, but that may take time with a substantial fall unlikely before the spring.
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