Australia Jan balance goods/svcs A$+5,210 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+4,800 mln)
|Australia's Jan balance goods/services arrived today, giving a slightly bullish outlook for AUD in the near-term.
Trade Balance (Jan)
- A$+5,210 mln, seasonally adjusted (Reuters poll: A$+4,800 mln).
- Australia Jan goods/services exports -3 pct MoM, seasonally adjusted.
- Australia Jan goods/services imports -3 pct MoM, seasonally adjusted.
FX reaction
AUD/USD was struggling to find takers despite the above-forecast Australian trade surplus data.
Australia's trade balance over time
The graph below shows the variation in Australia's monthly trade balance over the past few years.
We calculate two different values for trade balance:
- seasonally adjusted (sa), which means monthly data is adjusted to account for events such as Christmas, Easter and Chinese New Year.
- trend, which means the data is smoothed to more clearly highlight changes over time.
Description of the trade balance
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
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