AUD/USD Price Analysis: Retreats from 200-day EMA with eyes on 0.6770
|- AUD/USD pares recent gains at three-month high, prints the first intraday loss in four.
- 200-day EMA challenges buyers amid nearly overbought RSI.
- Previous resistance line from mid-September joins 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to stop bears.
AUD/USD consolidates weekly gains around 0.6800 while snapping a three-day uptrend during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair retreats from the highest levels since September 13 while marking the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as the key hurdle to the north.
Not only the 200-day EMA but the nearly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, also challenges the AUD/USD buyers.
Hence, a pullback towards the previous key resistance, now support around 0.6770, becomes widely expected as traders await a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe.
Also read: AUD/USD bulls keep the reins above 0.6800 ahead of RBA’s Lowe, US NFP
It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 0.6770 support confluence, encompassing a downward-sloping trend line from September 13 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August-October downside, appears difficult amid bullish MACD signals.
Even so, a daily closing below 0.6770 won’t hesitate the AUD/USD pair to drag toward the weekly low near 0.6640.
Alternatively, the 200-day EMA level surrounding 0.6840 restricts the Aussie pair’s immediate upside ahead of September’s high near 0.6915.
Following that, a run-up towards the late August swing high near the 0.7000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.
AUD/USD: Daily chart
Trend: Limited downside expected
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